Predicting Economic Turning Points


They say that death and taxes are the two unavoidable things in life. To that, we should add economic crises. Being able to predict when the next downturn will be is worth a lot of money, literally. For a government, it could be a matter of survival.

I DO NOT KNOW about you, but I would like the economy to be just good; stable and rising steadily. But in reality we know that this is not the case.

We know all about the business cycle, when economic expansion reaches a peak and then slumps into a recession. From the trough, the economy starts to grow and we do it all again. While we’re aware of peaks and troughs, do we know when these are going to occur? Bad times seem to sneak up on us really slyly and mess up all the big plans we have.

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